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Climate focus: Wildfires and megadrought in Chile

In the past days, wildfires have ravaged central Chile with a death toll of at least 131, and more than 300 people still missing at the time of writing. These fires are the most deadly, but not the first in recent years - six of the most destructive fire seasons on record in Chile have occurred in the past decade. Particularly notable are 2017 and February 2023 when fierce fires raged across the country killing dozens, injuring thousands, and leaving many people homeless. 

The fires come on the back of an extreme heatwave. Chile’s capital Santiago reached 37.3C on 31 January, the country’s third-highest recorded temperature in more than a century. This heatwave has affected large parts of the continent

On top of the long-term global heating trend, temperatures have been pushed even higher by El Niño. This summer heatwave was preceded by an extraordinary winter heatwave across much of South America. In August 2023, temperatures in the Chilean Andes rose as high as 38.9C in mid winter. 

The long-term trend is just as worrying. For over a decade, Chile has been grappling with a megadrought. This is a crisis of climatic change and lack of rainfall, but also a social and economic crisis of water management. Huge amounts of water are consumed by monoculture tree plantations to the south of Santiago and the avocado orchards in the north. Meanwhile the glaciers of the Andes continue to shrink. In 2022, water rationing was introduced in the capital, Santiago, the capital.

COP28 - what happened

A ‘historic agreement’? COP28 was the first such summit in three decades of UN climate negotiations to agree the necessity of moving away from fossil fuels. Which frankly says more about the failures of the process as a whole than the success of COP28. So what are the key outcomes from Dubai that we need to understand?

The final text, the ‘Global Stocktake’ did not in the end agree the ‘phase out’ of fossil fuels which more than 100 countries had called for, with oil producing nations, notably Saudi Arabia, implacably opposed. Instead, it called on countries to contribute to global efforts to transition “away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science”.

The overwhelming message from Global South countries was that while language might be significant, at COP28 it was much less important than the failure of richer nations to put money on the table. Poorer countries face three overwhelming costs they are unable to meet without this:

  • Adaptation: In a heated and unstable world, preventative investment in climate-resilient food production, coastal flood adaptation, management of scarce water resources, etc., is essential. But climate finance for this has been minimal. The adaptation finance gap is estimated at $194-366 billion. At COP28 an adaptation framework was agreed but not the money needed to deliver.
  • Loss and damage: Extreme weather events are increasingly causing severe losses, and those in poorer countries who have done least to cause the climate crisis are least able to bear the cost. At COP27, countries finally agreed to set up a fund to pay for this loss and damage, after a 30-year fight led by small island states and developing countries. On the very first day of COP28, the fund was formally adopted, and by the end of COP28 $770m had been pledged. Some countries, such as the UK, re-pledged funding already announced. Notably the US pledged a measly $17.5m. By comparison, estimates for the annual cost of climate damage have varied from $100bn-$580bn - the fund so far covers less than 1% of what is needed.
  • Transition: Richer nations built their economies on exploiting fossil fuels. The Paris agreement includes a commitment from developed countries to transfer funds not just for adaptation to climate impacts but so that poorer countries are able to develop without reliance on fossil fuels and meet their emissions targets. The commitment to provide $100bn a year by 2020 has not been met. The governments of countries such as Uganda say they cannot be expected to forgo the billions that exploiting their oil reserves would bring in when no alternative funding is forthcoming. Many countries are locked in a debt trap, forced to keep drilling to service their debts. 'Climate finance' as further loans is a bitter irony.

There are clear loopholes in the text, such as the call for the acceleration of carbon capture & storage, a technology which is unproven and expensive but can be used as a fig leaf for fossil fuel expansion. ‘Transitional fuels’ are ‘recognised’ for ensuring energy security, a clear reference to the idea that gas could be used as a ‘bridge fuel’ - which is not compatible with staying below 1.5C.

COP28 was supposed to finalise rules on carbon markets (Article 6). However, talks ended in deadlock. Despite multiple scandals around carbon trading, the US had been pushing for ‘light touch’ regulation, which would allow secrecy and potentially double counting of emissions cuts. This was blocked by countries demanding greater scrutiny as well as human rights and environmental safeguards. However this leaves the existing ‘voluntary’ carbon market unregulated for at least another year.

When it comes to climate breakdown, the bottom line is not politics but physics, which is not affected by words but only by the reality of cumulative global greenhouse gas emissions which continue to rise. The nations facing the most immediate existential threat, the Alliance of Small Island States, were clear in their statement, “It is not enough for us to reference the science and then make agreements that ignore what the science is telling us we need to do. This is not an approach that we should be asked to defend.”

COP28 - a fossil-fuelled summit as the world heats up

The annual UN climate summit, COP28, arrives as 2023 is set to be announced the hottest year the planet has ever experienced. Accumulated heat in the oceans and on land has driven a series of climate disasters and the urgency of the crisis has never been greater - but still the fossil fuel industry is determined to block action.

COP28 is hosted by the United Arab Emirates. The COP President, Sultan Al Jaber, is CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, planning a massive expansion of its own oil and gas production (the biggest expansion of any single company), and UAE is reportedly planning to use the summit as an opportunity to strike oil and gas deals. COP28 will see record numbers of fossil fuel lobbyists, as well as representatives of other polluting industries - and of course government delegations who are closely linked to vested interests. Greenwash measures such as carbon capture and storage are expected to be heavily pushed.

The UAE also has a dismal human rights record with concerns about the impact of mass surveillance and repression on climate activism at COP28.

No prizes for UK

The UK government is deliberately blocking the path to a green transition, intending to grant over 100 new oil and gas licenses and giving consent for the massive Rosebank oil field which would generate more CO2 emissions in total than the 28 lowest-income countries do in a year.

Rishi Sunak even boasted in his speech at COP28, “We’ve scrapped plans on heat pumps and energy efficiency, which would have cost families thousands of pounds,” showing a remarkable lack of shame about his backtracking and his ignorance that these measures are essential to actually cut energy bills.

Climate finance for climate justice

Last year’s COP27 saw a crucial victory  for countries on the frontline of climate breakdown. After decades of blocking by rich nations, a Loss and Damage Fund was finally agreed for countries most affected by climate change to cover devastating impacts like flooding and drought. The fund was formally set up at the start of COP28. For the first four years it will be hosted by the World Bank, a temporary arrangement reached in negotiations against the wishes of countries in the Global South who wanted an independent body to control the fund under the UN. The World Bank model is based on loans not grants, and is not set up to allow rapid access to funds after climate disasters. They also fear the dominance of the US over World Bank decision-making.

The history of climate finance has not encouraged trust. In 2009 in Copenhagen, rich nations pledged to provide US$100 billion a year to less wealthy nations by 2020, to help them adapt to climate change and develop sustainably. That target was not met in 2020. It was claimed to have been reached in 2023. However, analysis by Oxfam found that the majority of climate finance was in the form of loans to be repaid. Project funding which was not genuinely climate-related was also included - leaving the real value of funding just a fraction of the claimed total.

Take action

Communities and activists around the world will take to the streets on 9 December for the Global Day of Action. You can find events near you here.

Read more

COP28 Coalition global demands for climate justice based on human rights.

Follow updates on COP28 via CarbonBrief

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